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        特朗普面临二度弹劾,美股会受影响么?

        特朗普面临二度弹劾,美股会受影响么?

        Anne Sraders  2021年01月12日
        投资者们现在想的问题都是——拜登上任后,各行各业会受到什么影响?

        距特朗普卸任仅剩8天,在这最后关头,他却身处于第二次弹劾危机。从美国股市的表现来看,投资者们似乎对此无动于衷。

        “长话短说,我并不认为股市会受任何影响,投资者不会再关注特朗普,因为他还有8天就结束任期了。”Ally Invest的首席投资策略师林赛?贝尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时说,“投资者都在向前看,他们现在想的问题都是——拜登上任后,各行各业会受到什么影响?”。

        在国会大厦骚乱事件发生以前,美股在1月11日早盘已有下跌,标普500指数下跌逾0.7%,道琼斯指数下跌约0.5%,后至午盘又略有回升。

        1月6日的国会大厦骚乱后,众议院议长南希?佩洛西迫使副总统迈克?彭斯在24小时内援引第25修正案以罢免特朗普,此举引发了共和党不满,但若彭斯不采取行动,美国国会众议院将于13日投票弹劾特朗普,这意味着特朗普将在任期内面临第二次弹劾。

        富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高级全球市场策略师萨米尔?萨马纳认为,股市早期的波动情况并非出于政治变动,而是由于新冠疫情相关的其他因素。(疫情持续肆虐、疫苗接种缓慢、利率再次开始上升等)。

        部分策略师并不赞同此种观点,他们指出,在2019年特朗普遭受弹劾之际,股市反应虽然很平淡,但并非全无影响。萨马纳对此表示理解,他告诉《财富》杂志:“我们的却不能抹杀政治对于股市的重要性,但它的影响相对较小,除非它最终和民主党要推出的另一轮经济刺激法案挂钩。”

        “除此以外,弹劾特朗普这件事情几乎不会影响到股市。”萨马纳补充道。

        不过一些华尔街人士依然预测了一些弹劾相关的长期影响,值得投资者在未来进一步关注。

        首先,对美国国会来说,经济刺激法案永远是第一要务,但如果国会在此后将注意力重心转向弹劾事宜,那么投资者也会相应更为关注此事,并在股市上做出更多回应,只是这种概率很小。无论是贝尔还是萨马纳,他们都认为国会会在此后通过更多经济刺激法案。

        其次,瑞银(UBS)的首席经济学家保罗?多诺万指出“弹劾成功也就意味着特朗普的政治生涯正式结束,这可能会对部分看好特朗普的投资者产生影响。”但贝尔认为投资者可能并不会想得如此长远。此外,经济分析师们均表示,此次弹劾将会加剧共和党与民主党之间的分歧,从而导致国会更难通过各项立法。贝尔指出这反而可能会更加利好市场,从历史经验来看,华尔街十分乐于见到一个分裂的国会。

        萨马纳指出,尽管弹劾程序可能不会在本周对市场产生任何实际影响,但这可能会对2022年的中期选举产生长期影响。“如果弹劾程序被视为过度党派化,它可能会让一些选民从此失去投票兴趣。”

        “弹劾特朗普,这件事情在大多数人眼里就是疫情期间的一场小插曲。”萨马纳说道。(财富中文网)

        编译:陈怡轩

        距特朗普卸任仅剩8天,在这最后关头,他却身处于第二次弹劾危机。从美国股市的表现来看,投资者们似乎对此无动于衷。

        “长话短说,我并不认为股市会受任何影响,投资者不会再关注特朗普,因为他还有8天就结束任期了。”Ally Invest的首席投资策略师林赛?贝尔在接受《财富》杂志采访时说,“投资者都在向前看,他们现在想的问题都是——拜登上任后,各行各业会受到什么影响?”。

        在国会大厦骚乱事件发生以前,美股在1月11日早盘已有下跌,标普500指数下跌逾0.7%,道琼斯指数下跌约0.5%,后至午盘又略有回升。

        1月6日的国会大厦骚乱后,众议院议长南希?佩洛西迫使副总统迈克?彭斯在24小时内援引第25修正案以罢免特朗普,此举引发了共和党不满,但若彭斯不采取行动,美国国会众议院将于13日投票弹劾特朗普,这意味着特朗普将在任期内面临第二次弹劾。

        富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的高级全球市场策略师萨米尔?萨马纳认为,股市早期的波动情况并非出于政治变动,而是由于新冠疫情相关的其他因素。(疫情持续肆虐、疫苗接种缓慢、利率再次开始上升等)。

        部分策略师并不赞同此种观点,他们指出,在2019年特朗普遭受弹劾之际,股市反应虽然很平淡,但并非全无影响。萨马纳对此表示理解,他告诉《财富》杂志:“我们的却不能抹杀政治对于股市的重要性,但它的影响相对较小,除非它最终和民主党要推出的另一轮经济刺激法案挂钩。”

        “除此以外,弹劾特朗普这件事情几乎不会影响到股市。”萨马纳补充道。

        不过一些华尔街人士依然预测了一些弹劾相关的长期影响,值得投资者在未来进一步关注。

        首先,对美国国会来说,经济刺激法案永远是第一要务,但如果国会在此后将注意力重心转向弹劾事宜,那么投资者也会相应更为关注此事,并在股市上做出更多回应,只是这种概率很小。无论是贝尔还是萨马纳,他们都认为国会会在此后通过更多经济刺激法案。

        其次,瑞银(UBS)的首席经济学家保罗?多诺万指出“弹劾成功也就意味着特朗普的政治生涯正式结束,这可能会对部分看好特朗普的投资者产生影响。”但贝尔认为投资者可能并不会想得如此长远。此外,经济分析师们均表示,此次弹劾将会加剧共和党与民主党之间的分歧,从而导致国会更难通过各项立法。贝尔指出这反而可能会更加利好市场,从历史经验来看,华尔街十分乐于见到一个分裂的国会。

        萨马纳指出,尽管弹劾程序可能不会在本周对市场产生任何实际影响,但这可能会对2022年的中期选举产生长期影响。“如果弹劾程序被视为过度党派化,它可能会让一些选民从此失去投票兴趣。”

        “弹劾特朗普,这件事情在大多数人眼里就是疫情期间的一场小插曲。”萨马纳说道。(财富中文网)

        编译:陈怡轩

        It's round two. President Trump may be on the verge of a second impeachment a mere eight days before he's set to leave office. But investors aren't phased.

        "Long story short, I don’t think it means anything for stocks. I don’t really think investors care about it simply because Trump’s term is over in eight days," Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, tells Fortune. "They’re really thinking forward to, what does a Biden administration mean for what sectors and industries?"

        Stocks did fall early on January 11 with the S&P 500 down over 0.7%, while the Dow fell roughly 0.5% in early trading, before recovering somewhat in midday trading.

        The market moves preceded the introduction of an article of impeachment by the House on January 11 as Republicans blocked a House resolution calling on Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to quickly remove Trump from office.

        But for one, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's senior global market strategist Sameer Samana argues January 11's moves are likely due to other factors (he points to raging COVID-19 cases, a sluggish vaccine rollout, and rates starting to rise once more).

        Some strategists argue that, like the last time Trump was impeached in 2019 (when markets largely didn't bat an eye), the stock reaction would be muted, if not nonexistent: "Not to take anything away from the political importance of it. It's a slim chance, but unless it keeps Democrats from passing another stimulus bill, that’s the only implication we can think of," Wells Fargo's Samana tells Fortune.

        "Beyond that, impeachment in President Trump’s final days isn’t going to impact markets one way or the other," Samana adds.

        All that said, some on the Street do point to a few longer-term implications that may have investors keeping an eye on impeachment proceedings.

        Stimulus continues to be top of mind, and Wells Fargo's Samana notes investors may care more about the impeachment "if it takes Congress’s eyes off the ball, so to speak, in terms of stimulus." (Samana and Bell both still believe more stimulus will get done soon.)

        Meanwhile, UBS's chief economist Paul Donovan notes a "successful impeachment could bar US President Trump from office in the future, [and] if investors think US President Trump has a political future that might matter," he wrote in a Monday note, though Bell considers that to be "just too far out for investors to be thinking about." Additionally Wells Fargo's Samana, UBS's Donovan, and Ally's Bell note that impeachment might sharpen the already big divide between Republicans and Democrats—"making legislation more difficult to pass," Donovan notes. That may actually benefit markets, Bell suggests, as a split Congress is historically favored by the Street.

        And though he argues the impeachment proceedings probably won't have any real impact on markets this week, Samana notes there may be longer-term implications for midterm elections in 2022. "To the extent that impeachment proceedings are viewed as, let’s say, overly partisan, it could turn off some voters," he suggests.

        Ultimately, adds Samana: "We would view it as just short term noise alongside everything COVID-related."

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