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          2020年又破纪录:有史以来最热的一年

          2020年又破纪录:有史以来最热的一年

          Katherine Dunn 2021年01月13日
          尽管2020年人们关注的焦点是应对新冠疫情,但世界并没有完全忘记气温上升带来的巨大危险。

          又是一年过去,2020年在诸多方面都破了纪录:混乱无序、出人意料、匪夷所思,并且非常炎热。

          虽然全球很多地区都进入了封锁状态,商业活动也一度停顿数周或数月之久,但全球气温仍然在持续攀升。根据欧盟地球观测服务的数据,2020年是有记录以来最热的一年,与2016年不相上下。

          哥白尼气候变化服务中心(Copernicus Climate Change Service)在1月8日发布报告称,尽管碳排放量同比大幅下降(很大程度上因为全球交通大幅下滑引起),但主要是靠去年12月气温较为凉爽(与2019年12月相比)才没有让2020年变成有记录以来最热的一年。值得注意的是,2020年的高温发生在拉尼娜年(La Ni?a year),而拉尼娜年通常全球气温较低。

          气候变热已经不是第一年。哥白尼气候变化服务中心表示,2020年之前的十年为有记录以来最热,而且连续五年异常温暖。对一些地区来说,2020年彻底打破了纪录。欧洲就从未遭遇过如此炎热的天气。

          尽管封锁减缓了碳排放的速度,但碳浓度总体仍然在上升。2020年5月,随着全球大部分地区开始解除封锁,碳浓度也创下历史新高,达到413ppm(百万分比浓度)。

          按区域来看,有些地区出现了戏剧性的极端迹象。2020年伊始,澳大利亚遭逢可怕的森林大火,“有名字的”飓风数量创下历史新高,仅路易斯安那州就遭受了五场飓风的侵袭。台风和洪水袭击了东南亚的大部分地区;加州和亚马逊地区的火灾失控;这一年里有很长一段时间西伯利亚都异常温和;7月和10月,北极海平面分别下降至历史最低。

          哥白尼服务是唯一一家跟踪温度记录的政府组织。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的气候中心通常也会在1月中旬发布报告。该中心指出,尽管各类评估结果有时并不一致,但共识是明确的:世界正在变得极度炎热,而且是灾难性的。

          佐治亚大学(University of Georgia)的大气科学(Atmospheric Sciences)项目主任、著名教授詹姆斯?马歇尔?谢泼说:“如果人们只顾着关注2020年是否为有记录以来最热的一年,就忽略了更重要的一点——当前时代正在持续破纪录,这已经不再是突发性新闻,而是人类共同的危机。”

          2020年,极端天气事件造成数千人死亡,损失不断增加,事实已经十分明显。密切追踪气候变化风险的瑞士再保险公司(Swiss Re)于去年12月表示,预计2020年的损失为1970年有记录以来排名第五之多,由于风暴和山火空前肆虐,保险业的损失估计为830亿美元。

          尽管2020年人们关注的焦点是应对新冠疫情,但世界并没有完全忘记气温上升带来的巨大危险。

          首先,科学家认为新冠病毒有一部分原因跟气候变化有关,正如《财富》杂志在去年4月发表的报道指出,生物多样性严重损失,再加上人类不断侵犯自然,动物将病毒传染给人类的风险才会大幅上升,也都在意料之中。

          对于数百万被迫躲避自然灾害以及病毒的人来说,气候变化更是不容忽视。在政策和商业领域,2020年颠覆了人们对相关问题的传统观念。现在人们认为,为了应对某些灾难,可以接受某种程度的政府干预和刺激措施。

          彻底改变生活方式以及增加政府投入都已成为现实,对此气候专家早就发过警告。而采取种种举措确实有必要,能够遏制气温上升趋势并转向清洁能源系统。

          德国气候服务中心(Climate Service Center Germany)的科学家卡斯滕?豪斯泰因认为,政府为应对气候变化做出改变的成本将远远低于疫情中维持企业和个人生存的支出。

          他在回应上述声明的评论中表示:“一旦面临紧急情况,就会突然采取看似不可能的(金融)行动,规模也会空前庞大。”

          欧盟推出的是一揽子刺激和复苏计划,大幅倾向绿色环保,并收紧了整个欧盟的排放标准。在美国,即将上任的拜登政府已经承诺重新加入《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement),还要大力支持清洁能源激励措施。上周早些时候的佐治亚州决选中,民主党赢得了两个关键席位,控制参议院之后,通过相关措施的空间更大。

          韩国和加拿大等国家也承诺到2050年要实现净零排放,主要手段是推动政府项目。气候专家认为,为了防止未来几年气候变得更极端,2021年就要付诸具体行动,朝着目标奋进。(财富中文网)

          译者:晓维

          审校:夏林

          又是一年过去,2020年在诸多方面都破了纪录:混乱无序、出人意料、匪夷所思,并且非常炎热。

          虽然全球很多地区都进入了封锁状态,商业活动也一度停顿数周或数月之久,但全球气温仍然在持续攀升。根据欧盟地球观测服务的数据,2020年是有记录以来最热的一年,与2016年不相上下。

          哥白尼气候变化服务中心(Copernicus Climate Change Service)在1月8日发布报告称,尽管碳排放量同比大幅下降(很大程度上因为全球交通大幅下滑引起),但主要是靠去年12月气温较为凉爽(与2019年12月相比)才没有让2020年变成有记录以来最热的一年。值得注意的是,2020年的高温发生在拉尼娜年(La Ni?a year),而拉尼娜年通常全球气温较低。

          气候变热已经不是第一年。哥白尼气候变化服务中心表示,2020年之前的十年为有记录以来最热,而且连续五年异常温暖。对一些地区来说,2020年彻底打破了纪录。欧洲就从未遭遇过如此炎热的天气。

          尽管封锁减缓了碳排放的速度,但碳浓度总体仍然在上升。2020年5月,随着全球大部分地区开始解除封锁,碳浓度也创下历史新高,达到413ppm(百万分比浓度)。

          按区域来看,有些地区出现了戏剧性的极端迹象。2020年伊始,澳大利亚遭逢可怕的森林大火,“有名字的”飓风数量创下历史新高,仅路易斯安那州就遭受了五场飓风的侵袭。台风和洪水袭击了东南亚的大部分地区;加州和亚马逊地区的火灾失控;这一年里有很长一段时间西伯利亚都异常温和;7月和10月,北极海平面分别下降至历史最低。

          哥白尼服务是唯一一家跟踪温度记录的政府组织。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)的气候中心通常也会在1月中旬发布报告。该中心指出,尽管各类评估结果有时并不一致,但共识是明确的:世界正在变得极度炎热,而且是灾难性的。

          佐治亚大学(University of Georgia)的大气科学(Atmospheric Sciences)项目主任、著名教授詹姆斯?马歇尔?谢泼说:“如果人们只顾着关注2020年是否为有记录以来最热的一年,就忽略了更重要的一点——当前时代正在持续破纪录,这已经不再是突发性新闻,而是人类共同的危机。”

          2020年,极端天气事件造成数千人死亡,损失不断增加,事实已经十分明显。密切追踪气候变化风险的瑞士再保险公司(Swiss Re)于去年12月表示,预计2020年的损失为1970年有记录以来排名第五之多,由于风暴和山火空前肆虐,保险业的损失估计为830亿美元。

          尽管2020年人们关注的焦点是应对新冠疫情,但世界并没有完全忘记气温上升带来的巨大危险。

          首先,科学家认为新冠病毒有一部分原因跟气候变化有关,正如《财富》杂志在去年4月发表的报道指出,生物多样性严重损失,再加上人类不断侵犯自然,动物将病毒传染给人类的风险才会大幅上升,也都在意料之中。

          对于数百万被迫躲避自然灾害以及病毒的人来说,气候变化更是不容忽视。在政策和商业领域,2020年颠覆了人们对相关问题的传统观念。现在人们认为,为了应对某些灾难,可以接受某种程度的政府干预和刺激措施。

          彻底改变生活方式以及增加政府投入都已成为现实,对此气候专家早就发过警告。而采取种种举措确实有必要,能够遏制气温上升趋势并转向清洁能源系统。

          德国气候服务中心(Climate Service Center Germany)的科学家卡斯滕?豪斯泰因认为,政府为应对气候变化做出改变的成本将远远低于疫情中维持企业和个人生存的支出。

          他在回应上述声明的评论中表示:“一旦面临紧急情况,就会突然采取看似不可能的(金融)行动,规模也会空前庞大。”

          欧盟推出的是一揽子刺激和复苏计划,大幅倾向绿色环保,并收紧了整个欧盟的排放标准。在美国,即将上任的拜登政府已经承诺重新加入《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement),还要大力支持清洁能源激励措施。上周早些时候的佐治亚州决选中,民主党赢得了两个关键席位,控制参议院之后,通过相关措施的空间更大。

          韩国和加拿大等国家也承诺到2050年要实现净零排放,主要手段是推动政府项目。气候专家认为,为了防止未来几年气候变得更极端,2021年就要付诸具体行动,朝着目标奋进。(财富中文网)

          译者:晓维

          审校:夏林

          As years go, 2020 was a record breaker on many levels: chaotic, surprising, bizarre—and sweltering.

          Even as much of the globe submitted to lockdowns and business activity ground to a halt for weeks or months at a time, the global thermometer still ticked upwards: Last year was the hottest on record, tied with scorcher 2016, according to the European Union’s Earth observation service.

          Only a relatively cool December compared with that of 2019 prevented 2020 from being the stand-alone hottest year on record, the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on January 8—despite huge drops in emissions year on year, largely owing to massive dents in global transport. It’s also notable that 2020’s heat occurred during a La Ni?a year, typically a cooler year for global temperatures.

          This is not a single-year phenomenon: 2020 concluded the hottest decade on record, the service says, and marks five straight years of exceptionally warm weather. For some regions, it was a flat-out record breaker. Europe, for example, has never been hotter.

          And despite lockdowns, which slowed the pace of carbon being contributed to the atmosphere, the overall carbon concentration still ticked upwards: In May 2020, as much of the world was emerging from lockdowns, levels hit an all-time record of 413 parts per million.

          Regionally, there were signs of dramatic extremes. The year started out with terrifying wildfires in Australia, and a record for the number of “named” hurricanes: Louisiana alone was hit by five. Typhoons and floods hit much of Southeast Asia; California and the Amazon saw their own out of control fires; Siberia was bizarrely balmy for long stretches of the year; and the Arctic sea levels were the lowest on record for July and October, respectively.

          The Copernicus service is only one government organization that tracks temperature records—NASA’s climate center, for example, also typically makes an announcement in mid-January. Those assessments sometimes differ, noted the center, but the consensus is clear: The world is becoming disastrously hot.

          “I think the focus on whether 2020 is the hottest year on record misses the bigger point,” says James Marshall Shepherd, a distinguished professor and director of the Atmospheric Sciences program at the University of Georgia. “We are in an era of sustained record-breaking years. This is no longer breaking news, but a human crisis.”

          That reality was evident in the thousands of lives lost in extreme weather events over 2020, as well as the mounting costs. Swiss Re, the reinsurer that closely tracks climate change risk, said in December that 2020 was expected to be the fifth costliest year on record since 1970, with insurance industry losses estimated at $83 billion, driven by record levels of storms and wildfires.

          But despite the focus on grappling with the pandemic, the world did not totally forget about the perils of rising temperatures in 2020.

          For one, scientists have placed some of the blame for COVID-19 on climate change, as huge losses in biodiversity and the encroachment of humans on nature has led to a dramatic, but predictable, jump in the risk that viruses will jump from animals to people, as Fortune reported in April last year.

          And for the millions forced to shelter from natural disasters as well as the virus, it was impossible to ignore. In the realms of policy and business, 2020 overturned conventional wisdom about what levels of government intervention and stimulus were acceptable to forestall certain disaster.

          Radical lifestyle changes and huge government spending—the kinds of interventions climate experts have long warned are necessary to halt rising temperatures and shift to clean energy systems—became a fact of life.

          The cost to make the changes needed to address climate change would be far less than the amount governments are currently spending to keep businesses and individuals afloat through the pandemic, argues Karsten Haustein, a scientist at the Climate Service Center Germany.

          “Once we are faced with an emergency situation, seemingly impossible [financial] action is suddenly taken at unprecedented scale,” he said in a comment reacting to the announcement.

          In the EU, that action has come in the form of stimulus and recovery packages that skew heavily green and in tightened emissions standards for the entire bloc. In the U.S., the incoming Biden administration has pledged to rejoin the Paris Agreement and to put momentum behind clean energy incentives. The Democrats will have more leeway to pass such measures after taking control of the Senate, having won two seats in the Georgia runoffs earlier last week.

          Other countries, from South Korea to Canada, have also pledged to hit “net zero” emissions by 2050 and are using government programs to do so. But climate experts argue that in order to stop the coming years from tallying still more terrifying records, 2021 is the year when such targets must be followed by concrete action.

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